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Thorndike s Elimination by Grades.

The Psychological Clinic published in its March number a commendatory review of Thorndike’s study of elimination, which appeared as Bulletin No. 4, 1907, of the Bureau of Education. The editor of the Journal of Education, in the number of April 16th, subjects Thorndike’s work to a very severe criticism. As this criticism appears to be justified, it will undoubtedly be of interest to the readers of The Psychological Clinic, who should form their judgment of Dr Thorndike’s work only after full consideration of Dr Winship’s criticisms. Dr Thorndike seems to have based most of his calculations as to elimination by grades on the theory that the number of pupils enterHig a school system each year can be determined by adding the enrolment of the first, second, and third grades and dividing by three. Dr. Winship shows that this is wrong as a statistical method, by the simple process of demonstrating that Dr Thorndike’s conclusions in regard to different Massachusetts cities are far from being borne out by the facts in the case as well known by all school men. Ife quotes from Dr Thorndike and comments as follows:

“The figures of Dr Thorndike and his interpretations show that in Boston 19 per cent of the children leave the public schools before the fourth grade. The fact is, as every one knows, that none so leave the schools.

“In Maiden, Mass., he makes 33 per cent leave school before the fourth grade, when everybody knows that none leave.

“In Woburn, Mass., he makes 25 per cent leave and none do. “That is the kind of treatment he gives thirty-four cities, and then tells the world, at home and abroad, that 25 per cent of the pupils leave school before the fourth grade, and therefore leave school without any more education than is given in the third grade.”

In short, Dr Thorndike has taken as a measure of the average number of children entering the school system each year, the sum of the first three grades, divided by three. The fact is that the number in the first three grades contain all who entered in the last three years, plus some who entered four years before, plus some who entered five years before, and plus some who entered even earlier. Hence to get the average number of new entries we must divide not by three but by a larger number, perhaps three and one-half or four. Dr Thorndike seems not to have seen this. Commissioner Draper, of New York, and a large number of other well-known school men, and some statisticians, are in the same company.

Dr Winship concludes his editorial with the following words. “Let this sad incident be closed, and let us start anew. Let us now see if some department of education in some college can produce someone equal to the needs of tlie hour.

“How long, O ye experts, how long, before someone of you will learn to study the schools intelligently? Is there never to be found a man or woman who can study educational facts and figures? Are our university departments of education to admit themselves unequal to so simple (?) a proposition as this?”

In this connection, Dr Falkner’s article in the current number of The Psychological Clinic will be seen to have unusual importance. The editor of the Journal of Education drives home what the Ex-Commissioner of Schools in Porto Rico emphasizes in his article, namely, the necessity for a critical challenge of every statistical figure and statement.

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